This page has two basic sections. The first section provides links to web sites which will provide you with the location and forecasts for current hurricanes that could currently affect Florida. Links are also provided for climatic resources of information on hurricanes that have occured in the past. The second section is a thorough explanation of what a hurricane is and the statistical probabilites of how they have affected Florida.
Hurricanes form in the tropical regions of the central Atlantic and move eastward; intensify and affect the East Coast of the United States and the Gulf of Mexico. They can occur at any time of the year, but August, September and October are the peak months historically and this is considered the hurricane season. They are large storms that are approximately three hundred miles in diameter, but the major damage usually results close to the center, or eye of the hurricane which is generally five to fifteen miles in diameter. To be classified as a hurricane and not a tropical storm, the winds around the center of the eye must be equal to or greater than 74 mph. Even with the advances in modern meteorology it is extremely difficult to predict their exact path. The saving grace, of course, is that they move slowly, on the average ten miles per hour, and thus you have plenty of time to prepare if you are in its path.
If you live along the Atlantic Coast or the states bordering the Gulf of Mexico you are apt to have one visit your area. Statistics are kept on the hurricanes; one of the ways to express the results is what is the percent probability that any hurricane will pass within 75 miles of a particular location in a given year. Hurricanes are classified as follows:
Category One -- Winds 74-95 miles per hour
Category Two -- Winds 96-110 miles per hour
Category Three -- Winds 111-130 miles per hour
Category Four -- Winds 131-155 miles per hour
Category Five -- Winds greater than 155 miles per hour
The statistics also are given for a major hurricane, one of Category Three or greater will pass within 75 miles of a location in a given year. The winds in a hurricane drop off sharply away from the eye and at 75 miles from the eye most buildings will experience little of no wind damage while the closer to the eye you get the greater the probable damage. The current building code for the newer homes take these hurricanes into account and there is generally little wind damage to the newer homes unless they are very near the eye. If you live very near the water there is also the danger of flooding. Just as in the tornado prone areas, the trailer parks or pre-fabricated homes are generally the ones that suffer the most damage due to their construction.
On the East Coast the most hurricane prone city is Miami. There is a 26.3% probability that Miami will have a Category One or higher hurricane pass within 75 mile of the city in any given year. There is a 11.1% probability that Miami will have a Category Three or higher hurricane pass with 75 miles of the city in any given year. Put another way, in any given century, Miami can expect approximately 25 hurricanes to pass within 75 miles, 11 of which will be Category Three or higher.
As you go up the East Coast the statistics vary. For Nantucket, Massachusetts the probability of a Category One or higher is 12.5% and for a Category Three or higher 2.9%.
The statistics for the Tampa Bay area are 17.5% and 4.8% respectively. As you can see this falls half way between Miami and Nantucket. This says that Clearwater will have five Category Three or higher hurricanes pass within 75 miles of it in any century. As an example, in 2004, Charlie, a Category Three passed near Orlando approximately 75 miles from Clearwater and we experienced maximum winds of thirty five miles per hour and rain and some power outages but had no storm damage.
There is no way to soft pedal the effects that having a hurricane pass directly overhead can have on you. Everywhere people live has their own unique hazard, earthquakes, tornadoes, blizzards, and floods. All these natural phenomena presents risks that you must evaluate and prepare for if you live in an area where they occur. The risk that you may experience a hurricane is part of the price you pay for living in a paradise like Florida. The upside is you do have building codes for the newer home that minimize the amount of property damage and adequate and early warnings for your own safety which you don't get in earthquake or tornado prone areas.
Michael & Cindy Morris
Keller Williams Realty, Gulf Coast
Michael (727) 251-7447
Cindy (727) 480-8427
FAX (727) 397-5978
